Mechanism of global changes in food prices

Bogdan Góralski

Library of Historical Instytut of University of Warsaw

1.The Sun sets food prices

Sources of Data:

FAO Food price indices. Link:

http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/worldfood/Reports_and_docs/Food_price_indices_data.xls

Yearly mean total sunspot number. WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels

link: http://sidc.be/silso/DATA/monthssn.dat

Fog.1 Negative correlation Total Sunspot Number (blue color left scale) with changes in the index of food prices by FAO (red color right scale)

Author of the figure Bogdan Góralski, made on 23 August 2017, 7:00

The chart above shows the change in magnetic activity Sun – Total sunspot number (blue color), a negative correlation with changes in the index of food prices by FAO. Since 1999, the index of food prices rising, especially in periods of declining activity magnetic of the Sun – decreasing values of Total Sunspot Number. In the period 2019-2040 will age decrease in the magnetic activity of the Sun and with it will increase global food prices. Increase the level of oil and gas prices, and inflation will rise which will lead to a global and very rapid economic and political crisis. I warn against this crisis for many years, but somehow not visible.

See the following articles:

  1. Pustilnik, L. A. & Yom Din, G. Influence of solar activity on state of wheat market in medieval England. Preprint, http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/astro-ph/0312244, (2003).

http://www.nature.com/news/2003/031222/full/news031215-12.html

En Excerpt from this work:

At the point in the solar cycle when sunspots were least likely, wheat prices tended to be high, report Lev Pustilnik of Tel Aviv University and Gregory Yom Din of the Golan Research Institute in Kazrin1.

2. The area of cultivated land changes

Fig.2 World crop areas and wheet prices

Fig.3. Hemispheric temperature change

Source of image: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Date of download 13 August 2017,4:45 Jakuszowice, Poland

What we can see on above picture is higher temperature in Northern Hemisphere NH versus Southern Hemisphere SH in period around 1914-1956 and 1997-2017. It can be explained by shift of Earth’s coating over liquid Earth’s core. Meteorological stations located all around the globe have moved to the ecliptic that way, so on the northern hemisphere is more of solar irradiance versus southern hemisphere, and higher temperatures in NH are being noted, and SH is cooling.

3. Mechanism of changes in global food prices

Behind the changes in the location of the earth’s coating goes the changes in the distribution of precipitation zones in the north-south direction during the reverse movement of the coating from north to south and vice versa.

Food surpluses produced in the white man civilization countries where there is a great concentration of agricultural property and a reduction in the farmer population. If these countries move along with the earth’s coating into areas of unfavorable rainfall, food production is reduced. Reduced production occurs both in drought and excessive rainfall. Reducing food production results in a global increase in market prices, which in turn increases the area of agricultural crops (Fig.2) , resulting in an increase in food production and lowering prices.

When the earth’s coating again moves back, there is a global improvement in the weather conditions in countries of western civilization, an increase in output per hectare, and an excess of food causing a decline in its price. And so in the circle. Food prices are affected by transport prices. In periods of decline in production in countries with no surplus food, there is an increase in the transport of food from countries with surpluses of food. This results in a significant increase in freight rates, which increases the price of food shipped. So, the drop in food production among the major food consumers in Asia is likely to increase freight rates, ie the BDI Baltic Dry Index?

Since about 1997 the northern hemisphere has begun to warm up, with respect to the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3), and at the same time, the world food prices have risen sharply (Figure 1). Also during this period the total amount of precipitation in the USA and India decreased and the speed of rotation of the Earth increased (see link https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318838360_How_to_predict_the_rainfall_in_India_and_USA) and decreased magnetic activity of the Sun (Fig.1). The gravitational forces around the Earth have increased and the earth’s coating has shifted (see “Why Earth’s Coatings Rotate Around the Liquid Core of the Earth?” Link – https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319179377_Why_Earth%27s_coating_rotates_around_the_liquid_core_of_the_Earth) that on the northern hemisphere is more the sunny and US and India shifted up to the zone smaller rainfall.

There is likely to have been a decrease in the volume of food production in the US and India and other countries on the same latitude and rise in world food prices. The upcoming decrease in magnetic activity of the sun will likely again result in similar physical effects around the Earth, and on the Earth, and food prices will again begin to rise sharply. I ask the question: What is more effective? Do you transport food endlessly to countries that need it? Would not to be better to carry a surplus of population from overpopulated countries to countries with surplus agricultural land? In my opinion, this will safeguard us from the adverse effects of climate change. Further research is needed!!!

Jakuszowice, dnia 25 August 2017, 13:13 Bogdan Góralski

We are in the alley of our history

Bogdan Góralski

bogdangoralski@wp.pl

I am only a librarian in the Library of the Historical Institute of the University of Warsaw, but my readings in historical literature and broad general knowledge allow me to speak about the secrets of the historical process. We are biological organisms and the variability of the natural environment determines our behavior. Revolutions occurring in different parts of our world are caused by regional climate changes, which I describe in my work on climate. Revolutions are always caused by a regional, sometimes global, food shortage that is causing contestation over the existing social order. Groups of contestants come from the persecuted before the revolution of the social strata and as a result of the revolution often overthrow the dominant elites and take over power. Often there is a radical social revolution such as during the French Revolution. The feudal elite was abolished and a new economic and social order was introduced. It consisted in deconcentration of feudal agricultural property and the creation of hundreds of thousands (or perhaps millions) of peasant farms in its place.

The French Revolution was triggered by a climate crisis and food shortages, whose prices skyrocketed before the revolution. The decentralization of feudal agricultural property in France caused mainly by the rise in food prices began the process of enfranchisement of the peasants, which continued in the rest of the continent and reached Russia. Car announced the enfranchisement of Russian peasants, which also included Polish peasants. Poland was under partition and had to execute the orders of the occupying forces, but the Polish nobility were largely opposed to enfranchisement (emancipation of peasants), arguing with the peasant ignorance. Unfortunately, the enfranchisement has become a fact that still casts on history not only in Poland. Peasants gained land for their property but inexorable market processes and cheap food since the French Revolution have led to a re-concentration of agricultural property throughout the western world, and in place of tens of millions of peasant farms large agricultural property have emerged.

In the next few years, we expect another sharp rise in food prices, which will cause worldwide protests. The only advice is to bring about a re-decentralization of Western agricultural lands and to double the world’s food production. The problem is where to get enough farmers for such an operation. Farmers can only be obtained from the feudal countries of Asia and from Africa. This action can only succeed with the reintroduction of the feudal system in Western farming, the same farming system that was rejected by the French Revolution. So I propose to return to the old days, which only historians know. Ancient ancient powers, Rome and Byzantium, knew of the dangers of concentration and deconcentration in farming. Turkey, the heir of Byzantium, has currently the optimum system of farming and we must rely on it. Let’s go back to the past and upgrade it to the achievements of the last 300 years.

Warsaw, 12 September 2017 roku, godzina 17:30 Bogdan Góralski

 

Survival technology

12. Survival technology

Nowadays, in the era of globalization, when further barriers dividing nations disappear, in order to communicate and coexist, we must develop a certain global standard of ethical norms. The lack of an effective global system of regulating the behavior of individuals and societies has become a barrier to development, a threat to the human community. Until now, people, educated from animals, have been guided by instinct, behavior patterns resulting from adaptation to life in the bosom of nature. Centuries ago, in various civilizations, germs of ethics appeared, a new way of adapting a man to the growing social environment. Ethics, the canon of the behavior of the individual cementing the society, is a reaction of the living populations of organisms to the threat of the natural and social environment. The threat from the environment must be removed and this triggers adaptation mechanisms in the endangered society. One of these mechanisms is the gathering of knowledge about the environment and cooperation in its use to develop survival technology.

What is survival technology?

Technology is a way to achieve the assumed goal conditioned by the state of knowledge and social efficiency (Lem 1974: 32-33).

Our goal is to survive the oncoming climate crisis, which is the most important and inevitable threat for us, which is why we need to gain knowledge and social skills. What does it mean to gain knowledge – we understand, but what does it mean to be socially fit?

A socially-minded society must cooperate in order not to waste energy (energy) and to effectively achieve the purpose of survival. It is a society with a high ability to cooperate, an ethical society. Therefore, social efficiency is based on social bonds. It is based on an ethics that saves social energy in achieving the goal of survival. The ethics of society is a function of its knowledge accumulated in response to a threat. Static society, not counteracting crises, is exposed to revolutions. Each revolution looks the same – the rebellion of citizens against deteriorating living conditions. You must find a guilty crisis situation – a victim of aggression – they have always been the richest because the best-educated social elite.

Each time the extermination of the elites caused dark ages in the life of the community. The conclusion is that contemporary elites should create mechanisms for educating and enriching the poor masses to prevent anticipated crises.

Our Modern Survival Technology will determine the use of all of our civilization’s output and it will probably look like this:

1. mechanisms that provide everyone with the opportunity to acquire knowledge and wealth,

2. organizing peaceful migration of nations from overcrowded lands,

3. developing a uniform ethical system.

We see that we need to develop knowledge about social mechanisms and mass means of transport to develop a policy of implementing the first two demands. However, without a uniform ethics, ensuring consistent cooperation of the global community, we will do nothing. A unified ethical system must be created for the whole world community, based on the universal principle of saving all energy, which will enable close international cooperation.

Global climate change has always caused social conflicts and mass migrations. They can only be prevented by the consistent implementation of modern survival technology, expressed in the equation:

KNOWLEDGE + ETHICS = ENERGY = LIFE

Applying knowledge and ethics will give effectiveness (energy) to our global activities. The limits of knowledge are wisdom, and the boundary of ethics is love. May clever love between people provide us with the highest effectiveness in overcoming the oncoming climate crisis. This will ensure a peaceful life for future generations.

 

Climate warming is currently under way, which causes aggression in Asia and Africa to grow due to the decline in agricultural production and deteriorating living conditions. Migration from these continents to the USA and Europe is growing. At the same time, in the G-8 countries there is the phenomenon of agricultural overproduction with a decrease in the size of the population. All this together causes the financial and economic crisis. The logic of history allows us to expect the emergence of an outstanding figure, the creator of a new order and a universal ethical system that unites humanity on the way out of the crisis. This leader will have to apply the message of Jesus Christ, who said: “Share bread for my remembrance” (Luke 22:19), because this is the love of your neighbor. If the warming continues, it will worsen the situation in the equatorial countries. There will be a wave of migration to food-rich countries. If cooling comes, it will bring a disaster for the civilization of the white man, the migration of the G-8 (or revolutions?) And a sharp global rise in food prices. In such an event the world will not survive and the situation will start to destabilize. We can not allow this.

The fruit of my thoughts is the theory that universal ethics have a physical dimension. The ability of individuals and societies to save all forms of energy, including social energy, is a measure of ethics. An effective ethical system makes the society more efficient and more dynamic. The ethical person is the man who lives at the expense of using the least amount of energy. Ethics is the art of saving energy.

The social environment arose as a form of defense against an unfavorable natural environment. The emergence of ethical systems regulating the behavior of individuals in the social environment is therefore an adjustment mechanism to the surrounding environment. The lack of an effective ethical system is therefore a sign of lack of adaptation to the environment. In other words, ethical standards needed for man are the result of reactions to the surrounding natural environment. The world we live in constantly improves us, makes us more ethical. Better people create a more and more perfect human world. Our world is developing. So probably the goal of the world is development. Ethics is the result of the evolution of the collective consciousness of people reacting to threats coming from the surrounding environment. Probably ethics, as our limitation to the social environment, will replace the less and less needed primary instincts that in the earlier stages of evolution determined our reactions to nature. The global development of a unified ethical system will remove the development barriers facing mankind and will affect the development of civilization. The growing Internet, removing barriers to access to knowledge, is a new form of collective consciousness of humanity. It is a new environment in which we learn to live. Probably in this new online environment that brings people closer, new, unified ethics will be created. Unified ethics will enable peaceful cooperation of the world community and use, thanks to the Internet, all knowledge accumulated by humanity. Skillfully used knowledge will discover new sources of energy which will open amazing perspectives to people. It will probably enable our consciousness to grow to the limits of the world. The boundaries of this world will be determined by the resources of available energy. Until we can burn up the stars and create a new world.

Warszawa-Jakuszowice 2002-2017, 3:37 Bogdan Góralski

Theory of rational action

Theory of rational action

Bogdan Góralski

Library of the Historical Institute of the University of Warsaw

Guy Sorman writes in the book entitled “Made in the USA” on page 176:

Let us remind you that according to the theory of rational action – dominant in American universities – each unit is reasonable, rational in every culture and every age. Our individual decisions would have depended on economic logic. Everyone works – or more accurately: behaves – as if he were calculating the future profits he hoped for thanks to his current behavior.

Let us consider the meaning of the above statements. Is the unit rational ??? Let’s look at the historical process and draw conclusions.

The above graph illustrates the real wheat price in Europe over the centuries. Wheat prices are an indicator of the cost of living for the people of Europe. The following chart is a picture of changes in the cost of living on the Eurasian continent:

Fig 27 Prices of cereals in China and Europe in 1738-0906 years (in grams of silver per kilogram)

The above chart comes from the following work resulting from the cooperation of many authors:
Wages, Prices, and Living Standards in China, Japan, and Europe, 1738-1925.
Robert C. Allen, University of Oxford, Nuffield College,
bob.allen@nuffield.oxford.ac.u
Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford OX1 1NF
Jean-Pascal Bassino, Maison Franco-Japonaise, Tokyo / Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, bassino@mfj.gr.jp
54Debin Ma, GRIPS / FASID Tokyo, debinma@grips.ac.jp
Christine Moll-Murata, Utrecht University, Christine.Mollmurata@let.uu.nl
Jan Luiten van Zanden, Utrecht University / International Institute for Social History,
Amsterdam, jvz@iisg.nl
Link to the above work: http://www.iisg.nl/research/jvz-wages_prices.pdf

The chart is evidence of the existence of a climate inversion between Europe and Asia. The end of the 18th and 19th Centuries had a cold and humid climate in northern Europe, and there were bad and low yields. In southern Asia (southern Europe as well), there were more favorable climatic conditions for agriculture and lower food prices. In the beginning  20th century, the nutritional crisis moved to the East (Russia and China), which is also due to climatic inversion. The phenomenon of climate inversion I described in the article entitled “Development of Europe and Asia in the Little Ice Age and its contemporary consequences.”

Both charts and analysis of the historical process prove that high food prices affect the outbreaks of the French Revolution, the Spring of Nations, the Russian Revolution, and the Chinese Revolution. What can we say in this context about the rationality of people’s reaction to the rise in food prices? The behavior for people is based on the principle: When I live well, the authorities are right, but when I am hungry, I have to change the powers. The policy of irrationality of human reactions explains the outbreaks of all revolutions. However, are destructive social behaviors rational?

Each change in the power elite entails enormous material, psychological and social costs. Revolutions make the worse functioning of the social system of states, which we see in contemporary Eurasian examples. Revolutions do not improve the existence of nations. Revolutions are not rational at all, because the revolutionary reactions of citizens are based on false premises. As food and living costs increase, the people rebel against the authorities, blaming it for the economic crisis.

Meanwhile, periodic rapid increases in food prices and the resulting economic crises are the result of climatic cycles related to solar activity. Authorities are generally without fault. Nature and our environment, and its cyclical changes are to blame.

The last 200 years have been a constant decline in global food prices. Another climate crisis is inevitably coming, which will trigger a massive increase in food prices. People around the globe will start rebelling against power. Will these protests be rational? No, because they will be based on false premises. Human knowledge about the causes of food and economic crises is nil. The gap in human knowledge about the origins of crises removes my book called “Natural history and climate change” available on the Research Gate portal and the Academia.edu portal. It will be better for the world’s elite when my book will popularize, and the masses of people will learn about the natural-revolutionary mechanism. Otherwise, who knows what will happen ???

Warszawa, dnia 17 April 2016 roku, 6:00       Bogdan Góralski   

A brief history of Poland by Bogdan Góralski

A brief history of Poland

Poland has fought for its place on the world map for centuries. The most unrelenting opponent was Tsarist Russia, which together with the Germans made Poland’s partitions. The Russian tsar was destroying Polish independent intelligentsia that was the support of the former Polish state and also Russia took over almost the entire Polish Jewish community. The course of history led to the Russian revolution, which could to transform Russian absolute system of power into a parliamentary democracy for the Russians and other nationalities.But the revolution had been dominated by the Bolshevik mafia in which the Jews were the leader, and which was a derivative of the cruel political and social system of Tsarist Russia. The Bolshevik Mafia took power in Russia thanks to the financial help of American bankers and industrialists. After coming to power, the mafia first murdered the tsarist elite, and during the forced collectivization led by Stalin, murdered 10 million of the most economically efficiency Russian peasants, which caused the collapse of Russian agriculture and difficulties in feeding Bolshevik Russia. Hitler’s approach to power was made possible by American financial assistance and the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was the prelude to the next partition of Poland, which took place with the outbreak of World War II. The invaders was liquidating Polish intellectual elites. The murder of the of the Polish intelligentsia in Katyn and during the Soviet occupation and the annexation of agricultural property of Polish landowners was an introduction to making Poland a colony, it mean a cheap food supplier for Russia. Polish gentry and landowners would not agree to the exploitation of Poland by Bolshevik occupiers and understating prices of Polish food. Food from Poland was a salvation for the inefficient production system of Bolshevik agriculture. Therefore, it was necessary to murder the Polish pre-war elite and deprive the rest of its estates and power. Who could, have fled from the Bolshevik system and from Poland controlled by the Jewish communists. In the People’s Republic of Poland, huge subsidies for state agriculture were inefficient and Russia was mainly fed by Polish peasants.

The enormous export of food from Poland to Russia was the cause of the malnutrition of Polish society and contributed to the outbreak of the Solidarity revolution and the collapse of the Soviet system in Poland. From what was in Poland, the current circles of power were created. Nowadays, Poland is deprived of the Polish independence elite and therefore international mafias rule in our country as at home.

The last thing the present Polish authorities will do is to pay compensation for the assets taken away from the Polish independence elite during the tsarist-Bolshevik persecution. It would be an introduction to the return of millions of Poles from emigration and an introduction to the revival of the former culturally and economically strong Poland. Only such Poland and the reborn old Polish culture is needed for the world.

Jakuszowice, 27 August 2017, 7:00 Bogdan Góralski

Science and Ethics

To see what I have written on ethics, science you should go to the my ResearchGate account -link :https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Bogdan_Goralski2