Theory of rational action

Theory of rational action

Bogdan Góralski

Library of the Historical Institute of the University of Warsaw

Guy Sorman writes in the book entitled “Made in the USA” on page 176:

Let us remind you that according to the theory of rational action – dominant in American universities – each unit is reasonable, rational in every culture and every age. Our individual decisions would have depended on economic logic. Everyone works – or more accurately: behaves – as if he were calculating the future profits he hoped for thanks to his current behavior.

Let us consider the meaning of the above statements. Is the unit rational ??? Let’s look at the historical process and draw conclusions.

The above graph illustrates the real wheat price in Europe over the centuries. Wheat prices are an indicator of the cost of living for the people of Europe. The following chart is a picture of changes in the cost of living on the Eurasian continent:

Fig 27 Prices of cereals in China and Europe in 1738-0906 years (in grams of silver per kilogram)

The above chart comes from the following work resulting from the cooperation of many authors:
Wages, Prices, and Living Standards in China, Japan, and Europe, 1738-1925.
Robert C. Allen, University of Oxford, Nuffield College,
Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford OX1 1NF
Jean-Pascal Bassino, Maison Franco-Japonaise, Tokyo / Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo,
54Debin Ma, GRIPS / FASID Tokyo,
Christine Moll-Murata, Utrecht University,
Jan Luiten van Zanden, Utrecht University / International Institute for Social History,
Link to the above work:

The chart is evidence of the existence of a climate inversion between Europe and Asia. The end of the 18th and 19th Centuries had a cold and humid climate in northern Europe, and there were bad and low yields. In southern Asia (southern Europe as well), there were more favorable climatic conditions for agriculture and lower food prices. In the beginning  20th century, the nutritional crisis moved to the East (Russia and China), which is also due to climatic inversion. The phenomenon of climate inversion I described in the article entitled “Development of Europe and Asia in the Little Ice Age and its contemporary consequences.”

Both charts and analysis of the historical process prove that high food prices affect the outbreaks of the French Revolution, the Spring of Nations, the Russian Revolution, and the Chinese Revolution. What can we say in this context about the rationality of people’s reaction to the rise in food prices? The behavior for people is based on the principle: When I live well, the authorities are right, but when I am hungry, I have to change the powers. The policy of irrationality of human reactions explains the outbreaks of all revolutions. However, are destructive social behaviors rational?

Each change in the power elite entails enormous material, psychological and social costs. Revolutions make the worse functioning of the social system of states, which we see in contemporary Eurasian examples. Revolutions do not improve the existence of nations. Revolutions are not rational at all, because the revolutionary reactions of citizens are based on false premises. As food and living costs increase, the people rebel against the authorities, blaming it for the economic crisis.

Meanwhile, periodic rapid increases in food prices and the resulting economic crises are the result of climatic cycles related to solar activity. Authorities are generally without fault. Nature and our environment, and its cyclical changes are to blame.

The last 200 years have been a constant decline in global food prices. Another climate crisis is inevitably coming, which will trigger a massive increase in food prices. People around the globe will start rebelling against power. Will these protests be rational? No, because they will be based on false premises. Human knowledge about the causes of food and economic crises is nil. The gap in human knowledge about the origins of crises removes my book called “Natural history and climate change” available on the Research Gate portal and the portal. It will be better for the world’s elite when my book will popularize, and the masses of people will learn about the natural-revolutionary mechanism. Otherwise, who knows what will happen ???

Warszawa, dnia 17 April 2016 roku, 6:00       Bogdan Góralski   

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