Forecasting economic crisis 2018-2021 year

Bogdan Góralski

Library of the Institute of History, University of Warsaw

E mail: bogdangoralski@wp.pl

This work is a chapter of my book entitled “Natural history and climate change”, published on the Internet.

Discussions on the sources of economic crises underway since the mid-nineteenth century. Closest to the truth about the sources of crises was William Stanley Yevons – English logician and economist who lived from 1835 to 1882. He believed that cyclical economic crises resulting from changes in the solar cycle generating the Earth’s climate and causing global agrarian crises. And agrarian crises in the world economy cause economic changes in industry and finance. The achievements of modern science confirms the hypothesis Yevonse’a and explains how it is done. As an example, the recent global economic crisis, ongoing since late 2007. From 2007 to 2010 lasted itself a minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, measured by the number of sunspots (see Fig. 48). Just as during the transition from cycle 20 to 21, between cycles 23 and 24 lasted several years of cooling the climate (see Fig. 49).

.

Fig. 48. sunspot cycle 23 and 24. Source NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center-link: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/.

 

Several years of cooling climate with an amplitude of 0.8ºC can be seen in the following figure Fig. 49 between 2007 and 2010.

 

Fig. 49 Anomalies of global surface temperature of air. Source page NASA / GISS link: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

 

The climate cooling was the cause of the agrarian crisis in the US and countries in mid-latitudes (decrease agricultural production makes increase in the prices of agricultural products). This is confirmed by a sharp rise in export prices of wheat in the US and around the world, which took place in those years. See the following Fig. 50:

Fig. 50. Prices in dollars per tone of wheat exports from the United States in the years 1961-2006. FAO data source. (author drawing Bogdan Góralski)

 

Since 2000 the reduced solar activity results in   US export prices of wheat are rising what is the evidence of the dropping down agricultural production. See also press release quote from September 2007):

High oil prices, fuel production from corn, the smaller harvest resulted in an increase in grain prices in the world with 40%. Alan Greenspan acknowledges that long to maintain very low interest rates, increasing disregard for lending to the subprime market, contributed to the emergence of the crisis. Alan Greenspan stated that he have not foreseen a significant decline in house prices, which caused a crisis in the mortgage market.

 

This quote shows a deep misunderstanding by the economists the development of economic process, the excitation financial and economic crises. The decrease in agricultural production caused the overall decline in profits for farmers -see quotation release of 29 December 2009:

 

This year Polish farmers’ incomes fell by 12.4 percent. compared with 2008 – according to data published Friday by Eurostat. On average income of farmers in the EU fell in 2009 by 12.2 percent. Most in Hungary (35.6 percent.), Italy (25.3 percent.) And Luxembourg (25.1 percent.). Only increased in five EU countries; most in the United Kingdom (14.3 percent.). For comparison – last year the income per head of Polish farmers fell by almost 16 percent. compared with 2007.

 

This resulted in the decrease in global demand for industrial products and reduceing export economies of the US, Japan and Europe (According to the OECD, there was a decline in exports by 14% in 2009). During the Depression, according to the OECD, noted a serious decline in world merchandise trade. Evidence of this is quotation release of September 2009:

 

Japan’s exports fell in August by 36% compared with 2008. Spain’s budget deficit reaches 50 billion, ie. Is approaching 10% of GDP.

 

This provoked crisis of global finance, which forced the governments of Western economies to pump in the banking systems of large sums of money magnifying the debts of the countries. Inflation grew due to increases in grain prices that was not compensated in a timely by increase in oil prices that affected the economy of North Africa-major exporters of crude oil and importers of food, reducing the consumption of the population. This provoked social protests of young Arabian societes that were suprised by high prices of food (world cereal price increases cause inflation) and led to the so-called Arab spring revolutions and resulted in the removal of the existing authorities. See the quotation release of 9 January 2011:

 

Record high food prices occupy a more important place on the political agenda of many countries. The rulers are afraid that this could lead to higher inflation and protectionism and social unrest and declining demand in key markets of developing countries. On Wednesday the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced in December that food prices reached their highest level since 2008, when their growth has led to riots in countries such as Egypt, Cameroon and Haiti.

 

Increases in global food prices cause inflation by raising oil export prices in countries that import food and compensate for price increases of imported food increased prices and revenues from oil exports. If the food supply crisis is prolonged it causes inflationary spiral. See the chart of oil prices downloaded from site-link: http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/13/oil-prices-1861-today-real-vs-nominal_flash2.html

 

 

 

The penultimate increase in prices of cereals and oil occurred in reduced solar activity between cycles 20 and 21, when there was a serious global economic crisis. A similar or even greater crisis will occur in the coming years because we are approaching further large reduction in solar activity between cycles 24 and 25:

Fig. No. 52. sunspot cycles 18-25. NASA Source link: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/

Fig.53 Correlation of global food prices and SSN sunspot numbers.

Figure 53 added in 2018

Upcoming decrease in solar activity will produce worse climate change. It is very likely that this will result in global political and economic crisis, which has the effect will be revolutions, and perhaps the war around the world. To avoid this, it is necessary to change attitudes towards climate research and denial of the concept of climate change by a human influence on climate change. These concepts are scientific superstition, which may cause unpredictable consequences for the world if it further promoted by the world media. Only reliable and rapid discussion of the causes of climate change can save us from the impending destabilization of the political and socio-economic world. Reliable scientific discussion taking into account all the concepts climate will prepare the world into crisis and perhaps prevent revolutions and wars. This article is my contribution to a reliable scientific discussion on the issue of climate change and its effects.

 

Jakuszowice, 30 April 2013                                             Bogdan Góralski

 

 

Forecasting economic crisis 2018-2021 year

Bogdan Góralski

Library of the Institute of History, University of Warsaw

E mail: bogdangoralski@wp.pl

This work is a chapter of my book entitled “Natural history and climate change”, published on the Internet.

Discussions on the sources of economic crises underway since the mid-nineteenth century. Closest to the truth about the sources of crises was William Stanley Yevons – English logician and economist who lived from 1835 to 1882. He believed that cyclical economic crises resulting from changes in the solar cycle generating the Earth’s climate and causing global agrarian crises. And agrarian crises in the world economy cause economic changes in industry and finance. The achievements of modern science confirms the hypothesis Yevonse’a and explains how it is done. As an example, the recent global economic crisis, ongoing since late 2007. From 2007 to 2010 lasted itself a minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, measured by the number of sunspots (see Fig. 48). Just as during the transition from cycle 20 to 21, between cycles 23 and 24 lasted several years of cooling the climate (see Fig. 49).

.

Fig. 48. sunspot cycle 23 and 24. Source NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center-link: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/.

 

Several years of cooling climate with an amplitude of 0.8ºC can be seen in the following figure Fig. 49 between 2007 and 2010.

 

Fig. 49 Anomalies of global surface temperature of air. Source page NASA / GISS link: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

 

The climate cooling was the cause of the agrarian crisis in the US and countries in mid-latitudes (decrease agricultural production makes increase in the prices of agricultural products). This is confirmed by a sharp rise in export prices of wheat in the US and around the world, which took place in those years. See the following Fig. 50:

Fig. 50. Prices of wheat exports from the United States in the years 1961-2006. FAO data source. (author drawing Bogdan Góralski)

 

Since 2000 the reduced solar activity results in   US export prices of wheat are rising what is the evidence of the dropping down agricultural production. See also press release quote from September 2007):

High oil prices, fuel production from corn, the smaller harvest resulted in an increase in grain prices in the world with 40%. Alan Greenspan acknowledges that long to maintain very low interest rates, increasing disregard for lending to the subprime market, contributed to the emergence of the crisis. Alan Greenspan stated that he have not foreseen a significant decline in house prices, which caused a crisis in the mortgage market.

 

This quote shows a deep misunderstanding by the economists the development of economic process, the excitation financial and economic crises. The decrease in agricultural production caused the overall decline in profits for farmers -see quotation release of 29 December 2009:

 

This year Polish farmers’ incomes fell by 12.4 percent. compared with 2008 – according to data published Friday by Eurostat. On average income of farmers in the EU fell in 2009 by 12.2 percent. Most in Hungary (35.6 percent.), Italy (25.3 percent.) And Luxembourg (25.1 percent.). Only increased in five EU countries; most in the United Kingdom (14.3 percent.). For comparison – last year the income per head of Polish farmers fell by almost 16 percent. compared with 2007.

 

This resulted in the decrease in global demand for industrial products and reduceing export economies of the US, Japan and Europe (According to the OECD, there was a decline in exports by 14% in 2009). During the Depression, according to the OECD, noted a serious decline in world merchandise trade. Evidence of this is quotation release of September 2009:

 

Japan’s exports fell in August by 36% compared with 2008. Spain’s budget deficit reaches 50 billion, ie. Is approaching 10% of GDP.

 

This provoked crisis of global finance, which forced the governments of Western economies to pump in the banking systems of large sums of money magnifying the debts of the countries. Inflation grew due to increases in grain prices that was not compensated in a timely by increase in oil prices that affected the economy of North Africa-major exporters of crude oil and importers of food, reducing the consumption of the population. This provoked social protests of young Arabian societes that were suprised by high prices of food (world cereal price increases cause inflation) and led to the so-called Arab spring revolutions and resulted in the removal of the existing authorities. See the quotation release of 9 January 2011:

 

Record high food prices occupy a more important place on the political agenda of many countries. The rulers are afraid that this could lead to higher inflation and protectionism and social unrest and declining demand in key markets of developing countries. On Wednesday the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced in December that food prices reached their highest level since 2008, when their growth has led to riots in countries such as Egypt, Cameroon and Haiti.

 

Increases in global food prices cause inflation by raising oil export prices in countries that import food and compensate for price increases of imported food increased prices and revenues from oil exports. If the food supply crisis is prolonged it causes inflationary spiral. See the chart of oil prices downloaded from site-link: http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/13/oil-prices-1861-today-real-vs-nominal_flash2.html

 

 

 

The penultimate increase in prices of cereals and oil occurred in reduced solar activity between cycles 20 and 21, when there was a serious global economic crisis. A similar or even greater crisis will occur in the coming years because we are approaching further large reduction in solar activity between cycles 24 and 25:

 

 

Fig. No. 52. sunspot cycles 18-25. NASA Source link: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/

Upcoming decrease in solar activity will produce worse climate change. It is very likely that this will result in global political and economic crisis, which has the effect will be revolutions, and perhaps the war around the world. To avoid this, it is necessary to change attitudes towards climate research and denial of the concept of climate change by a human influence on climate change. These concepts are scientific superstition, which may cause unpredictable consequences for the world if it further promoted by the world media. Only reliable and rapid discussion of the causes of climate change can save us from the impending destabilization of the political and socio-economic world. Reliable scientific discussion taking into account all the concepts climate will prepare the world into crisis and perhaps prevent revolutions and wars. This article is my contribution to a reliable scientific discussion on the issue of climate change and its effects.

 

Jakuszowice, 30 April 2013                                             Bogdan Góralski