- 2 More science, ethics, culture for the modern and future world
- 3 Bogdan Góralski
- 4 firstname.lastname@example.org
- 5 Library of the Historical Institute of University of Warsaw
- 6 Table of content:
- 7 1. Chinese revolutions and the authority changes in China during 1361-2020 AD versus rice prices changes
- 8 1.1.Introduction 2
- 9 1.5.Summary 8
- 10 1. Chinese revolutions and the authority changes in China during 1361-2020 AD versus rice prices changes
- 11 1.1. Introduction
- 12 Chinese history is written by changes in the price of rice – the basic Chinese cereal. Each major increase in rice prices was preceded by a period of low prices in which agricultural property was concentrated in the hands of huge landowners. Then always followed a price increase causing social discontent and the outbreak of popular uprisings that changing the Chinese authorities. Then happen deconcentrating of land ownership by dividing landowners’ agricultural assets between starving crowds of people and the rule of the new dynasty. And so the elites ruling China change from the rise in rice prices to the next rise. As a result of the recent People’s Revolution in China in the early 1980s, there was another deconcentrating in agricultural ownership due to the global rise in food prices. The land possessed for many years by rural communist communes was transferred to Chinese peasants, and so far there is no shortage of food in China because 800 million producers produce it very effectively. Unfortunately, another global climate change is coming, which will increase global food prices. I am writing below about the causes of this future climate and food disaster.
- 13 Chapter SixLand Concentration and Income Distribution in Republican China, by Loren Brandt and Barbara Sands
More science, ethics, culture for the modern and future world
Library of the Historical Institute of University of Warsaw
Table of content:
1.2. Comparison of grain prices between China and Europe 4
1.3. Fertility changes of world human population 1750-1955 6
1.4. Authority changes in China versus rice prices changes in period 1361-1901 8
2. What did Karl Marx not know? What to do to ensure the abundance of food for the human population? 8
2.2.Why deconcentrating of huge farms is needed? 8
2.3.A modern feudal farming system is needed 9
2.4.The technology of surviving the climate crisis is needed 11
2.5. What is survival technology? 12
2.6.The crisis means a revolution and revolution is a threat to the lives of the elite 12
2.7.Why the modern feudal system? 12
3. Contemporary global ideological conflict
3.2. Environment-human conflict 17
3.2a. The HSN-HSS conflict 18
3.3.Climate change and people’s migrations 19
3.4.Climate disaster in the years 2013-2100 19
3.5. Conclusions 20
Fig 1 Rice Prices in the Yangzi Delta, 1638–1935 (taels of silver per shi)
Source of the graph: Chinese History in Economic Perspective, Edited By
Thomas G. Rawski and Lillian M. Li, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS
Berkeley · Los Angeles · Oxford © 1992 The Regents of the University of California
Secular Trends of Rice Prices in the Yangzi Delta, 1638–1935, by Yeh-chien Wang
An excerpt from the above book:
“In Table 1.1, I have compiled an annual price series for the delta from 1638 through 1935 by combining four shorter series as follows: a Shanghai series for 1638–95, a series for Suzhou City (the capital city of Suzhou Prefecture) covering 1696–1740, a Suzhou Prefecture series for 1741–1910, and a Shanghai series for 1911–35. There are, however, some years for which price data are missing. In such cases, I have filled out the missing data by extrapolation (marked with an asterisk in the third column); for the years 1862–64, when Suzhou was occupied by the Taiping rebels, I have used Shanghai prices.”
Land Concentration and Income Distribution in Republican China, by Loren Brandt and Barbara Sands
An excerpt from the above book sixth’s chapter, page 179:
“These remarks by the British historian Richard Tawney typify much of the thinking both in China and in the West about the growing concentration of landholdings in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century rural China.”
This excerpt from the above-cited book confirms the concentration of agricultural ownership in China in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries caused by a reduction in rice prices in the period 1860-1885 caused by a favorable climate. Then followed a climate deterioration and a sharp rise in rice prices (Fig. 1) (and all food?), Which triggered the Chinese Revolution.
1.2. Comparison of grain prices between China and Europe
Fig. 2 Comparison of rice prices in China and wheat in England in the period 1361-1910
Source of China rice prices: Peng Xinwei, p. 459 in Monetary History of China Quanlian Publishing, Shanghai: 1957.
Source of England wheat prices: Wilhelm Abel (1935), Agrarkrisen und Agrarkonjunktur in Mitteleuropa vom 13. bis zum 19. Jahrhundert, Berlin1935, Tabelle 1.
The price of grain in China is four times higher than in England for a unit of 100 kg in England – 100 liters in China. A significant increase in food prices in England and China in the seventeenth century is due to the deterioration of the climate and deterioration of the harvest, which causes the expansion of the Manchu to the South and the rise to power the Qing dynasty in China and the religious wars in Europe, the migration of Europeans to other continents and the expansion of the Swedes to the south of the Baltic Sea to Poland so-called Swedish Deluge. The Swedish Deluge resulted from a lack of food caused by an unfavorable climate, which I describe in work entitled Short climatic history of Poland.
|1628||1646||Peasant uprising in China under the slogans of equal division of land. Manchurians gain power in China – expansion to the South of the peoples of the north. From 1630 Polish grain exports are falling and it has been rising since 1730.||oziębienie||historyczne|
In the period preceding the rule of the Qing dynasty, the agricultural property was concentrated in China, which later resulted in the upraise of Chinese peasants in the period 1628-1646 under the slogans of equal division of land, i.e., deconcentrating of landed land ownership.
1.3. Fertility changes of world human population 1750-1955
In the period 1750-1830 in Europe, there was a great increase in food prices, which caused the French Revolution in overpopulated France and began the process of the enfranchisement of peasants in feudal Europe. Enfranchisement was, in fact, a process of the deconcentrating of agricultural property, which was to improve the feeding of rebellious peasants, i.e., increase food production. Most likely, the processes of enfranchisement were carried out by kings and aristocracy for fear of a revolting peasantry and the urban poor. Protests resulting from high food prices lasted in Europe until the Spring of Nations, i.e., until 1850, that is almost until the improvement of climatic conditions in Europe. After 1830, steamers began to transport American grain to Europe, and wheat prices dropped significantly, which lasted until the 21st century. In China, during the Qing Dynasty (1650-1850), the population increased to 300 million, but another rise in rice prices ended their rule. It is characteristic that at the same time, food prices began to change in England and China from 1880-1890, and in England, prices dropped, and in China soared. It was due to the displacement of the earth’s shell in such a way that in the US and Europe, climatic conditions improved and in China deteriorated, which caused great differences in food prices between England and China. This climate inversion between the West and the East is shown in Figure 3, where between 1921-1925, the fertility of European populations decreases, and the fertility of the Japanese population increases. It indicates better climatic conditions in Japan than in Europe at that time. There is also decreasing fertility of European populations (In France, a decrease in fertility since the French Revolution) and happen an increase in fertility of the Russian population until the Bolshevik revolution. It also proves that climatic conditions are improving from west to east Europe (the amount of precipitation has been increasing in Russia since 1850), which greatly affects the feeding of European populations. After 1935, the living conditions of the population deteriorated because the fertility of European populations dropped dramatically. The decreasing fertility chart for the French population testifies to the disappearance of French life optimism after the French Revolution. It was probably caused by a huge concentration of agricultural and industrial property in France, which prevents small businesses from doing business, causing visible economic stagnation and protests by the impoverished population of France. Rescue for France and Europe in the deconcentrating of agricultural and industrial property, in which case there is a possibility of resettlement of Asian peasants to Europe. This will have beneficial effects on the world and the dying economy of the West.
Fig. 3 Total European and Japanese fertility Data from 1801-1950 from the European part of Russia come from (Glass 1965: 97 tab.20). (author of the drawing Bogdan Góralski). Birth rates (crude birth rate) in populations covered by revolutions and wars from 1750 to 1955. Dark violet -Russia, violet-Germany, dark blue-Austria, brown-Japan, light blue-England, green-Italy, yellow-France.
Data 1750-1840 for France. Dawid Victor Glass, World Population, tab. p. 101
Data 1841-1955 for France, Germany, England, Austria D.V.Glass, World Population, tab. pp. 68-69
Data for Austria-Hungary until 1906.
To calculate the birth rate in the English population, data from the book Wrigley E.A., Schofield R.S., “The Population History of England 1541-1871. A reconstruction. London 1981:
Data from Table 7.8 on pages 208-209 on the size of the population: Quinquennial English population totals 1541-1871
Data from Table A2.3 on pages 496-502 about the number of births.
Data from these two tables above were used to calculate the crude birth rate in England
Data 1801-1950 for the European part of Russia: Dawid Victor Glass, World Population, tab.20, p. 97
Data for Japan: from 1911-1943 from the Statistical Year-Book of the League of Nations, p. 41
Data for Italy: Dawid Victor Glass, World Population, tab. p. 68.
1.4. Authority changes in China versus rice prices changes in period 1361-1901
Fig. 4 Demographics of China (orange dots) against the background of changes in rice prices (blue, we play silver per hectolitre of rice) and changes in Chinese dynasties and governments
Source of China rice prices: Peng Xinwei, p. 459 in Monetary History of China Quanlian Publishing, Shanghai: 1957.
Demographics of China data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China
Each increase in rice prices resulted in a decreasing of the Chinese population, and as we said earlier, every major change in rice prices resulted in a change of government in China:
from 1393 MING dynasty,
1650-1850 Qing dynasty,
The 1928-1950 Republic of China,
from 1950- ??? The People’s Republic of China.
Who will rule China after another future rise in rice prices ???
Warsaw, 30 December 2019
2. What did Karl Marx not know? What to do to ensure the abundance of food for the human population?
• Certainly, the change in global climate conditions awaiting us in the future and related to the displacement of the Earth’s coating can cause a decrease in cereal yields by at least 50%, which would have unpredictable effects in the form of global famine. As my research indicates, this would lead to a world war that would probably destroy the culture of human civilization. In this context, priority should be given to measures to increase farm productivity. Such an increase can only take place by deconcentrating agricultural ownership in Western agriculture – dividing large farms into smaller leased and indivisible farms as soon as possible. The organization of African agriculture should also be improved by promoting the agricultural structure of farms in the area of one acre and by improving the supply of agricultural produce. Africa could be turned into a global granary provided that airships and drones are used in African and European-Asian agriculture.
2.2. Why deconcentrating of huge farms is needed?
• As research in agricultural economics shows, small farms have greater pure technical efficiency and make better use of capital (Sulewski 2008). Other surveys (Polish Statistical Yearbook 1967: 256 Table 56) show that small farms with an area below 3 ha have global production per hectare by 81% higher than farms with an area over 15 ha. This is confirmed by the pre-war Swiss profitability research discussed in the book “Chłopi under Bolshevik rule” (Przybyłowski 2001: 29).
2.3.A modern feudal farming system is needed
• What I wrote above indicates the need, wherever possible, to support small family farms and create to them (by organizing the sale of agricultural products and supplying cheap means of production) conditions for intensive agricultural production. Such conditions for peasant farming in Poland will exist in the feudal agricultural production system. You should, appropriately modifying it, return to feudal farming.
- Take the cost of fertiliser, for instance. Farmers in America pay a price on delivery of $226 per tonne. But in Zambia the price is $414. Shipping costs explain only a small part of the difference. The rest is accounted for by port duties, bribes, storage fees, fuel costs, the importer’s mark-up and the credit charges racked up as the fertiliser makes its tortuous journey from port to farm (The Economist).
Need Agricultural Advisors?
- Some bottlenecks (wąskie gardła) are not easy to clear. To build a network of rural roads is hard. But small investments can make the whole difference. There are cases where a starving part of a country is cut off from another part with plenty of food for want of a bridge, says David Ameyaw, a Ghana-born American who edited the AGRA report. Money spent on research can also have a big pay-off as it helps governments to gauge which policies work best. Africa has just 70 agricultural researchers for every million people, says AGRA. The comparable figure for Latin America is 550; for North America, it is 2,640 (The Economist, Farming in Africa. Cold comfort farms).
Europe and North America have the most of arable land concerning the population. At the beginning of the 20th century, more than 30% of the population have been found employment and agriculture in the US and Europe, and today it is 2% of the population. Agricultural structural changes after the French Revolution and global warming, reducing food prices and technological progress, caused the disappearance of the farmers’ layer in western agriculture and the creation of large-scale mechanized farms. The concentration of agricultural ownership has resulted in concentration in industry and the disappearance of medium and small dynamic economic entities. The concentration of the economy reduces its efficiency and dynamics as well as competitiveness as the efficiency decreases in the use of financing, which is characteristic of small business entities that are easier to manage effectively.
Shifting (along with the Earth’s coating) of the area of Russia, north Asia, to the North will drastically reduce the agricultural production of these areas. Societies in these areas will not be able to feed themselves or buy food on the global market due to the dramatic increase in global food prices and the lack of means of transport for its transportation. The food shortage causes the danger of a global war.
When food prices rise, the poor cannot afford to buy it. As can be seen in the figure below, in Russia and China, the human population is sensitive to increases in food prices due to low incomes and a small area of arable land, as well as the threat of climate deterioration.
2.4. The technology of surviving the climate crisis is needed
• Technology is a way of achieving an assumed goal conditioned by the state of knowledge and social fitness (Lem 1974: 32-33).
2.5. What is survival technology?
• Our goal is to survive the impending climate crisis, which is the most important inevitable threat to us, which is why we need to acquire knowledge and social fitness. What does it mean to acquire knowledge – we understand, but what does it mean to be socially fit?
• A socially efficient society must work together in order not to waste its strength (energy) and successfully achieve the goal of survival. It is a society with a high ability to cooperate, an ethical society. So social fitness is about social bonds. It is about ethics, which saves social energy in achieving the goal of survival.
Modern Survival Technology will determine the use of the entire heritage of our civilization and it will look like this:
• 1. mechanisms providing everyone with the opportunity to acquire knowledge and wealth,
• 2. organizing peaceful migration of nations from overpopulated crisis-threatened lands,
• 3. developing a uniform ethical system.
2.6. The crisis means a revolution and revolution is a threat to the lives of the elite
• It is the current elite that should implement modern survival technology to avoid endangering their lives.
The only economic system that can absorb migrating human masses is the modern feudal system
• He will grant settlers arable land,
help them develop the land,
help them in needs,
double the agricultural production per hectare of arable land
2.7. Why the modern feudal system?
- Soviet Russia had the problem of too large a peasant population – 120 million peasants to 30 million of the remaining population. It was solved by destroying the peasant layer, creating large farms forcibly, and developing the industry with its capital. It resulted in the disappearance of the most prolific peasant layer and the modern depopulation of Russia. Otherwise, the peasant problem was solved by China.
- Communist China had problems with feeding China, which was why the inefficient agricultural communes were given up by distributing small plots of land to 800 million peasants. The peasant family is now responsible for food production. Thanks to this, China is self-sufficient food and even exports food. State-owned purchase of food was organized, and the prices of agricultural produce were shaped by the free market of surpluses produced by Chinese farmers. Chinese farmers are assigned legally to the land; farming on small plots of land (often 1 hectare per family) is very poor, and their youth is forced to a controlled migration to the cities where the industry giving its employment is created. There is now a trend among Chinese peasants to create voluntary agricultural cooperatives, which is not supported by the authorities.
- In Russian agriculture dominate large-scale specialized mechanized farms, which causes depopulation among the rural areas. Agricultural production cannot be increased in the existing system due to the low production efficiency of large farms. Only the deconcentrating of Russian agriculture can double agricultural production, but the problem is the lack of farmers who need to settle on small farms. Excess farmers occur in neighboring China, and existing examples testify to the good assimilation of Chinese farmers in Russian society. Organizing the migration of Chinese farmers to the west the European continent can help depopulate the Chinese countryside and increase the area of Chinese farms, which would reduce poverty in the Chinese countryside. How to start this process of migration of Asian farmers to the land owned by Great Western Possessors of the agricultural land- the latifundists?
- The impulse may come out of Poland in which the farmers’ population is dying out and rapidly needs an injection of fresh blood. Poland has almost deserted, depopulated so-called Western lands taken away from Germany after World War II. The Western lands of Poland can take whole well-organized villages of Asian farmers and increase food production for its sale in the east of the continent. The problem arises of organizing the life of western Polish agricultural provinces. This task can be entrusted to the descendants of the Polish nobility and landowners (who first need to be rehabilitated in front of the society) and give them back property plundered by the Tsar and Bolsheviks, e.g., in the form of Polish state treasury bonds. The enfranchisement of Polish peasants with the tsarist law 1864 year was carried out without compensation for the noble landowners and was a huge mistake because it resulted in the subsequent concentration of agricultural property in Poland. The agricultural reform carried out by Polish communists, which took over the land used for centuries by Polish nobility and landowners, caused the contemporary decline of Polish agriculture because it was carried out against the economic mechanisms shaping the agricultural structure and caused even greater concentration and inefficiency of farming on agricultural property in Poland. Only rehabilitation and rebuilding the tradition of Polish nobility and landowners can help rebuild Polish agriculture. It requires awareness of the necessity of such a process in the Russian political elite, which would have to carry out a critical analysis of the ideological foundations of the current Russian state. Similar critical analysis and rehabilitation of the feudal system in China must be carried out by Chinese communists.
- The Chinese revolution that has been going on since the fall of the Qing dynasty in 1850 was caused by the huge rise in rice prices, which resulted from the worsening climate in China since 1850. The deterioration of the climate resulted from natural processes initiated northward shifting of the Earth’s shell along with the area of China and changes in the range of the East Asian monsoon, which resulted in a decrease in the amount of precipitation in Southeast Asia. Chinese landowners were not responsible for the deterioration of the fate of the Chinese people as a result of the huge increase in food prices. Such an increase resulted from the laws of the natural process and the economics of agriculture, which laws, as I see still unknown. However, Chinese feudal lords and feudal lords of other nations used economic power to exalt themselves over the poor, and this was reprehensible in every ancient ethical tradition. This exaltation of the rich over the poor cannot be allowed to repeat itself in the future. The revolutions were a protest against the stupidity of the political elite, its cruelty and exploitation, and social injustice, as well as against state organisms degenerated by the concentration of property in the hands of a narrow group of rich people. Karol Marx did not know about reasons shaping the historical process. It can explain the call of Karol Marx for a communist revolution carried out by fanatical communist leaders, namely Vladimir Lenin, Joseph Stalin, Mao Zedong, and others. These revolutions have changed nothing and there is still a huge social stratification in Russia and China. We need to learn from these bloody and full of suffering revolutions and learn modern knowledge about the causes of revolutionary protests. The cause of the revolution is not the struggle of social classes, but changes in the forces of gravity in the space that surrounds us, which cause the movements of the earth’s coating and regional climate changes on Earth. Climate change is reducing agricultural production and increasing food prices, which means that people prefer to fight the rich rather than starve to death.
- This paper removes ignorance about the reasons for rising food prices and the reasons for the alternating concentration and deconcentrating of agricultural property, which depend on space processes in the solar system and beyond. Knowledge of these processes must influence the rationalization of the political decisions of today’s authorities if they want to remain in power during the oncoming global rise in food prices. A global increase in food prices could lead to the physical elimination of the current elite if they do not take appropriate steps to alleviate the impending food crisis, which will trigger the wild aggression of the affected societies. One should quickly return to the feudal system modernized by modern ethics in agriculture and eliminate the inheritance of private property.
- Warsaw, 5 January 2020, Bogdan Góralski
3. Contemporary world global ideological conflict
We are surrounded by a huge universe, encouraging us to explore. We reach for distant stars without knowing our globe and its social environment. Humanity growing its numbers since the beginning of history, and the problems associated with increasing population were the causes of wars and revolutions disrupting the development of our civilization. We do not know the laws that govern social processes and caused cyclical dark eras in our history: eras of wars, looting, cultural stagnation, stagnation of science, and barbaric recurrences. Understanding these laws and mastering our behavior will create a global civilization.
For several years I have been researching the impact of environmental changes on our lives. One of the basic elements of the environment is a set of physicochemical phenomena referred to as Earth’s climate. In my works, I show that climate change that is constantly occurring in the history of Earth is a reflection of the evolution of the universe. The Earth and its atmosphere change cyclically during the evolution of the planet and its star system. Because, as I have shown below, climate change conditions our behavior, we can say that the harmony of the Universe processes controls our reflexes. Regional climate changes are responsible for the complex process of development of subsequent civilizations of our globe, which collapse during periodic, mass migrations, forced by climate change. My historical analysis leads to the conclusion that most likely, in the 21st century, we will face a climate disaster that may threaten the development of human society and which may result in effect cause the so-called dark ages. To avoid this, we should explore the mechanism of climate change. It would allow forecasting the time of arrival of the threat and preparing for a disaster.
Additionally, understanding the Earth’s climate mechanism would undoubtedly increase the efficiency of global agriculture production, which would rapidly develop our civilization and eliminate hunger from the lives of a billion people. Previous studies of the Earth’s climate mechanism do not allow insight into the whole of this complicated phenomenon. We need a multidisciplinary approach to this complex issue and the creation of an international research team that will solve the problem of conditioning the future of our civilization, the problem of the causes and effects of climate change.
Modern man has evolved in the process of evolution by adapting to environmental changes, i.e. mainly climate change. Human history is a constant struggle with the environment. During the fight with the environment, two (or maybe three?) Genetic lines were created among people, including one with the predominance of Neanderthal traits (Let’s call it HSN), the other with modern humans HSS. The HSN genetic line dominate by men’s culture, and women are subordinate to the men. Women dominate the HSS genetic line, and men are subordinated to the women. Groups of people with HSN and HSS characteristics spread during the migration and are currently fighting for power in the world, and this conflict is being marked in every corner of the globe. Among the HSN Group are Chinese supporters of Confucianism and Ashkenazi Jews, whose social tactics are a struggle for power and government over the people.
The HSS Group is fighting for money to satisfy the whims of capricious women, and their social tactics are fighting for money. In this group are i.e., Chinese Taoists and Sephardic Jews.
So there are two basic conflicts in the human world:
Conflict of the environment – man
Social conflict HSN – HSS
3.2. Environment-human conflict
In Earth’s history, the climate changes regionally as the earth’s surface moves relative to the sun. Climatic zones dependent on solar radiation and precipitation are stable relative to the ecliptic plane on which the Earth moves around the sun. The surface of the earth changes its position relative to the ecliptic plane with the movement of the Earth’s coating and then there is the apparent movement of climate zones, in which people experience through drought or excessive rainfall, changes of the seasons of the largest precipitation, cold or heat.
3.2a. The HSN-HSS conflict
As a result of this conflict and the resulting migration, the situation in the world was as follows:
In Europe and Asia mainly HSN dominates,
In the USA, England, Australia, Taiwan, HSS dominates.
Political and economic systems in these regions were shaped in accordance with the social tactics of both human genetic lines, namely:
The free-market capitalist system in the HSS sphere of influence
The centralized system planned in the HSN sphere of influence
Also, for example, in China and Russia, mixed economic systems arose as a result of social crises, but the HSN group maintained its political power.
The geographic influence of HSN in Europe and Asia is due to the historical domination of HSN on this continent, where, due to larger brains, they formed groups that rule over the rest of society.
The geographic influences of HSS result from their migration to North America, Australia, Taiwan after the English, French, Russian, and Chinese revolutions.
Revolutions against the Romans in ancient Israel resulting from the dryness in climate 2000 years ago caused the migration of Jews to the whole world. Because they abandoned land and its cultivation during the diaspora, they had to make a living from non-agricultural professions – services for the surrounding population, be it craft, merchant, or banking. The riches gained by Jews, thanks to the diligence and good organization of communal life, caused their constant persecution (during subsequent climate crises that were worsening the living conditions of their host communities). The struggle for survival favored intense tribal coherence, the tribal ethics that led them to social heights in Europe, and the Americas – Jews became the banking and business elite of these lands.
As both conflicts mentioned above in points, 1 and 2 will deepen shortly due to the coming global climate crisis, further adaptation to the natural and social environment is needed. Because the coming climate crisis will cover the whole globe, global adaptation changes are needed, i.e., those that I intend to describe in my new book entitled How to feed up the world? How to Return to feudalism without inheritance?
3.3.Climate change and people’s migrations
Climate change has triggered migrations of peoples whose chronology is a record of Earth’s climate cycles. Here is a history of the crises that ended in movements:
• -Approx. 12th century BC marked the migration of people, which ended the reign of Mycenaean civilization and began the so-called dark ages. As a result, the Etruscans appeared in Italy, Egypt and Palestine were attacked by the so-called peoples of the sea.
• -In the VIII, VII century BC, during the drought in the Asian steppes, the Scythians occupied eastern Europe. At the same time, the Great Greek colonization marked out, which expelled the Greek population to emigrate.
• -Approx. 4th century BC the journey of the Celts from northwestern Europe towards the Adriatic Sea, the Black Sea began, which indicates a growing cooling.
• -At the beginning of our era in Palestine has marked itself the significant socio-economic crisis that provoked the civil war in Galilee, Judea (which was called the War of Varus), and the uprising in 66 and 132 AD. It testifies to a crisis (rapid drying of the climate) that caused the exodus of Jews from Palestine to all world.
• The next migration of peoples began in the 4th century CE Huns invasion of Europe. Germanic peoples migrated south to the lands of the Roman Empire, leading to its downfall.
• In the VIII-IX centuries, the Viking expansion continued towards the south of Europe, which may indicate problems with feeding the population of Northern Europe and the climate crisis.
• In the 12th century, Mongols arrived in Europe because of the drought in the Asian steppes.
In the fourteenth century, it got cold, and in Europe were epidemics, hunger, and peasant uprisings.
• The extinction of the Vikings in Greenland since 1400. The Little Ice Age lasted until the 19th century. The peak of chilling in Europe was in the 17th century. It resulted in the great migration Europeans to the continents of both the Americas and Asia continued at the time. The great State of Poles-the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Ottoman Empire collapsed then.
3.4.Climate disaster in the years 2013-2100
By the geophysical and historical data (migrations of people are indicative of climate crises), we know that the climate cycle repeats every 400 years. We can, therefore, expect that another major crisis will occur in 2013-2100. We should prepare for it. It will be a climate disaster – a sharp change in the distribution of climate zones, which will drastically reduce global food production. It will bring revolutions, wars, and supra-regional population migrations. There is still time to protect yourself against this. It requires knowledge and ethics on a global scale. Otherwise, dark ages will come.
We must adapt to regional climate change and, like our ancestors, migrate to climate-friendly regions of the globe. To do this, we must open borders and modify state systems to accept migrants and establish a new ethical system uniting all beings.
Warsaw, 1 January 2020 Bogdan Góralski